PCT North To South? South To North? - How I decided To be NOBO (northbound)

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Once I made the decision to thru-hike the PCT, I just wanted to relax for a little bit. After all, I just changed my plans for the future, well, completely. The next set of important decisions was already knocking on my door though. Where do I want to start, at the northern terminal or the southern. And when?

Decisions, decisions...

Maximizing potential time on the trail was a priority for me, as I like to take many pictures and interesting side trips. If you plan a traditional hike rather than a winter adventure, the limiting factor for trail time is snow. First and foremost in the Sierra Nevada in California, where the snow levels have to recede to a reasonable level before you can cross. But also in the Cascades, my stomping grounds, where I know from first hand experience how long the snow can linger. Just two summers ago I attempted a weeklong PCT Section J hike from Snoqualmie Pass to Stevens Pass with my friend Chris in mid-July, but had to turn around on the second day as the sheer amount of snow on the trail together with steep and unstable snowfields quickly became overwhelming.

PCT Section J near Alaska Mountain

I gathered some data to help with my decision. NOAA publishes and updates long term temperature and precipitation forecasts. According to the latest update below, the north has a higher chance of above-average winter precipitation (aka snow) while the prediction for the south is below average. 


The temperature predictions for the same time suggest quicker snow melt in the south than in the north, compared to the annual average.


Last November when I had to take my decision, these trends were much more pronounced.

How does this translate into a decision, when maximizing potential trail time is a priority? Slightly below average snow in the south potentially enables an earlier start there. Snow is predicted to linger longer in the north, again compared to an average year, potentially delaying a start at the northern terminal. Also, the lingering snow in the north could help to delay or minimize the forest fire season in this region another positive point for starting south.

Another big decision made. Next up, the start date.

Location: Seattle, WA, USA

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